Analysis of Non-US Currency Short-term Trends
On Monday , the non-US currencies were mixed and the overall volatility was relatively small. The euro (1.1653, 0.0046, 0.40%) weakened slightly against the US dollar. The ECB's accidental doves continued to suppress the euro last week; The New Zealand dollar traded in a narrow range against the US dollar. Concerns about trade frictions caused the exchange rate to face further downside risks; the US dollar oscillated at a high level against the Canadian dollar (1.3268, -0.0049, -0.37%), due to the strength of the US dollar and the drop in oil prices and technical aspects. Powei, the United States and Canada is expected to continue to surge or maintain high volatility trend.
1, the euro against the US dollar:
Weekly level: Consecutive decline; Short-term moving average after the dead cross, MACD and KDJ Sicha are in good operation, the exchange rate is bearish against the market, may further fall to the support of the 100-week moving average around 1.1429, the week of July 21, 2017 low Point support is also near this position, with the week low on July 7th, 2017, near 1.1311, and the 61.8% retracement of the 1.0340-1.2555 rally support around 1.1186. In addition, there was some support near 1.1509, the low point of June 1.
The initial resistance above the five-week moving average is around 1.1650, and the 10-week moving average resistance is around 1.1833. Before regaining this position, it tends to look bearish.
Daily level: low volatility, before the exchange rate rebound was blocked near 1.1850, KDJ re-established Sicha, short-term moving average re-established Sicha, MACD red column shrinks and there are signs of Sicha, short-term may try again The previous low of 1.1509 support, if you fall below this position, you may be expected to open a new downside. The low on July 20, 2017 was near 1.1477; the low on July 13, 2017 was near 1.1369
The initial resistance above the 5-day moving average resistance is around 1.1654, and the 10-day moving average resistance is around 1.1711. It is necessary to recover this position to ease the short-term downside risks. What needs to be reminded is that if the exchange rate sticks to the support near 1.1509, it is still necessary to guard against the possibility of a partial "W". There are still some resistances near the June 1 low of 1.1617
Conclusion: Before recovering 1.1654, the market outlook is bearish.