Pound any appreciation of space
Tuesday (February 6) intraday European sterling, the pound (1.3966, 0.0017, 0.12%) fell against the dollar fell 1.39, refreshing the low since January 22 to 1.3859, now trading at 1.3871 front line.
GBPUSD has fallen sharply below 1.39 since last Friday (Feb. 2), but BofAML expects to reach the transitional agreement for Brexit in 2018, bullish sterling, Danske Bank of Denmark Danske), also known as the medium-term bullish pound, is likely to push the euro above 0.8950 against the pound sterling (0.8873, 0.0004, 0.05%), with the Goldman Sachs bears the pound and the euro back to 0.90 Above.
Dansk: medium-term bullish pound, should be high above 0.8950 euro tumbled against the pound
The pound will move up in the next few months, with the pound weakening early this week and the euro rising above 0.8860 against the pound as the January UK Markit Services PMI dropped to 53, well below expectations and prior readings.
Beijing time on Thursday (February 8) 20:00 Bank of England will announce the February interest rate decision, monetary policy meeting minutes and quarterly inflation reports, expected to wait and see attitude, the euro this week, the risk of the British pound against the uplink, due to the current market to the United Kingdom The central bank's rate hike relative to the hawkish stance, the rate hike in May was 50%, sterling non-commercial positions high, the current "Brexit" risk premium low.
Therefore, the exchange rate this week may test the high of 0.8909 on January 17, but the strategy is still bullish pound in the medium term, if the euro stood at 0.8950 against the pound, will consider selling rallies.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch: 2018 expected to reach the transition agreement to take off in Europe, bullish sterling
Huitong.com pointed out that in 2017 British Prime Minister Theresa Mayon said that there is no such thing as a "bad agreement" because the bank thinks it has deviated from this position at present and the EU does not want to intentionally "punish" Britain. This will not be followed by other European countries.
At the beginning of 2018, the EU and the UK will most likely reach a transitional agreement to maintain the structural bullish pound. The conclusion of the transitional agreement will bring a new round of boost to the pound. It may push the Bank of England to raise interest rates again, preferring to make structurally more pound sterling CHF (0.9345, -0.0014, -0.15%) (1.3051, 0.0009, 0.07%) as the bearish Swiss franc was maintained.
In fact, the simple Taylor rule shows that the Bank of England is the easiest monetary policy position in the G10 central bank due to sustained high inflation and low unemployment.
Goldman Sachs: bearish pound, the euro against the pound expected to return above 0.90
The economy in the euro area is still sound. The policy of the European Central Bank has shifted from monetary easing to exit strategy. The foreign exchange reserve managers have ample room to increase their holdings of the euro assets.
On the contrary Goldman Sachs view of the pound is not so optimistic, the pound fell mainly because of the risk of leaving Europe, the United Kingdom and the EU is expected to eventually reach a transitional agreement is not smooth.
Goldman Sachs expects the euro against the pound to return to above 0.90 this year, political uncertainty and the sluggish economic performance in the UK will benefit the cross.
UOB: Neutral for sterling over the next one to three weeks
It is observed that the technical analysis of the bank shows that the short-term sterling keep falling risk, the next one to three weeks to hold a neutral position, but the current retracement continued to fall to 1.3800 space, clearly breaking the point will imply that the January high of 1.4346 is more Important top. On the upside, only 1.4100 stood before suggesting that the downward pressure on the short-term easing.