USD/CHF outlook is bullish and should be long
Global Foreign Exchange April 5 - USD/CHF has appreciated by 4.4% since mid-February, although the global stock market has plummeted and it should benefit the safe-haven currency, but Swiss franc has not been supported. Analysts expect the dollar to rise further against the Swiss franc.
Arnaud Masset, an analyst at Swissquote, pointed out that “the war on trade has not raised the demand for safe-haven currency CHF. This may be due to the large number of speculators betting on the depreciation of the Swiss franc, which can be derived from the recent foreign exchange futures positions. see."
"The latest CFTC speculative position data shows that the Swiss franc net short position is 21% (open interest) is 10% the previous week."
Another factor may be that U.S. trade tariffs may benefit the U.S. dollar because it will reduce foreign imports. Ulrich Leuchtmann, an analyst at Commerzbank AG, holds this view. He said that although the Trump administration has tried to devalue the dollar, its policies (tax cuts) have benefited the US dollar so far.
Demand from arbitrage traders may also push up the USD/CHF, because US interest rates have risen and there has been a huge divergence from Swiss interest rates. US interest rates are currently at 1.75%, while Swiss interest rates are still at -0.75%, and real interest rates are even lower.
From a technical point of view, the exchange rate hit the 0.9658 resistance at the 200-day moving average and it is difficult to further increase. Julius Baer's Pocinci said that the exchange rate outlook is positive and the exchange rate is still in the mid-term momentum buying signal. The analyst had done this currency pair on March 14th.
The analyst believes that the exchange rate will exceed the current resistance and 0.9800, if broken will confirm further gains.