Iran's gold price may rise again
Since the United States withdrew from the Iranian nuclear agreement on May 8, many countries have launched good offices and negotiations on whether Iran will restart its nuclear program. The EU and Russia remain within the framework agreement of the Iran nuclear agreement, and the United States continues to impose new sanctions on Iran. At the same time, Israel has also continued to struggle against Iran and tried to expel Iranian forces in Syria.
Although OPEC announced that it may gradually withdraw from the production cuts, oil prices remain at a high level, and the deterioration of the situation in the Middle East may also push gold prices back above 1300 points.
Israel and Iran are constantly on the Syrian issue
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on the 23rd that Israel will "resolutely repulse the Iranian offensive" and will not allow Iran to establish a military base in Syria and will not allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons.
Netanyahu said at a meeting of international air commanders at Tylenov AFB in central Israel that the Israeli Air Force has played a crucial role in implementing this policy and has been effectively implementing this policy in recent years.
It is reported that the international air force commander meeting was held here from the 22nd to the 24th, and air force generals from more than 20 countries participated.
Israel launched a large number of warplanes early in the morning on May 10 and launched missiles to dozens of "Iranian targets" in Syria. Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs subsequently stated that Israel’s behavior was a clear act of aggression.
The United States has pointed out that Iran has intervened in the Middle East to intervene in the civil war between Syria and Yemen, to support forces, expand its influence, and destabilize the region.
However, in response to the accusations against Iran by Israel and the United States, Syrian relevant spokesmen stated that the issue of whether or not the Iranian armed forces withdrew from Syria is not on the agenda of discussion. This is a matter for the Syrian government. We will not even let anyone mention it. And (Iran evacuation) this matter."
U.S. Implements Multiple Rounds of Sanctions Against Iran
On May 10, the U.S. Treasury Department announced that the United States imposed sanctions on six Iranians and three entities, frozen its assets in the United States, and banned U.S. citizens from trading with them.
On May 15, the U.S. Treasury Department also announced that it imposed sanctions on four individuals and one entity, including Saifu, Iran’s central bank governor, saying that it would not allow Iran’s “abuse of the international financial system”.
The U.S. Department of the Treasury announced on the 24th that it has sanctioned three individuals and six entities that Iran Airlines has provided assistance to.
In a statement issued on the same day, the U.S. Department of the Treasury said that the sanctions included two Iranians, one Turk, and six entities.
The statement pointed out that these individuals and entities have purchased aircraft parts and provided other services to Iranian airlines sanctioned by the United States for this purpose. This has given the Iranian government the ability to transport weapons, military and funds abroad.
According to regulations, all assets of the sanctioned in the United States will be frozen, and U.S. businesses and individuals must not make any contact with the sanctioned.
In fact, the sanctions against individuals who provide assistance to Iran are not the only actions the United States has recently had. As early as the end of 2017, a Turkish state-owned commercial bank vice president and a Turkish-Iraq dual-national gold trader appeared in New York for trial in the United States. Allegedly violated the U.S. sanctions, bribery, and money laundering.
The Turkish government has expressed dissatisfaction with the United States on many occasions, which has caused the deterioration of the U.S.-Turkey relations and turned Turkey’s diplomacy towards Iran gradually.
The International Atomic Energy Agency believes Iran has complied with the terms, but the United States insists on sanctions
The United Nations’s International Atomic Energy Agency recently stated that Iran has complied with the provisions of the international agreement signed in 2015 to limit its nuclear activities.
The report released by the UN agency on Thursday (May 24) was the first assessment of the Iranian nuclear program since the Trump announced that the United States had withdrawn from the Iran nuclear agreement.
The International Atomic Energy Agency said that Iran’s uranium enrichment, storage, and other related nuclear activities are all below the maximum limit set by the Iranian nuclear agreement.
However, the International Atomic Energy Agency criticized Iran for restricting additional inspections.
When the International Atomic Energy Agency released a report assessing Iran’s nuclear activities, the United States resumed its sanctions against Iran and sought to force Iran back to the negotiating table and reach new nuclear agreements, including limiting its missile tests and ending military activities in the Middle East.
The U.S. side stated that it will gradually resume sanctions on Iran in a matter of months. The sanctions have severely affected the Iranian economy, but the other five countries that signed the Iranian nuclear agreement, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, China and Russia all stated that they continue to support the Iran nuclear agreement.
Pompeo recently filed another 12 requests against Iran
On May 21, the new U.S. Secretary of State Pompeo said that as long as Iran implements the requirements of the United States, the U.S. is willing to lift sanctions and establish diplomatic ties with Iran. Otherwise, the U.S. side will impose the most severe sanctions on Iran.
Pompeo listed the 12 U.S. requirements for Iran, including withdrawing all the troops from Syria, releasing all U.S. citizens, stopping the support of Yemeni armed forces, stopping uranium enrichment activities, promising not to carry out processing, and demanding that Iran must Unlimited access to all nuclear sites nationwide. Pompeo said that only when the United States sees a clear shift in Iran’s policy will it consider easing sanctions.
Pompeo also warned Iran that if Iran decides to resume its nuclear weapons program, the United States is ready to respond.
Market participants believe that Pompeo's toughness will not allow Iran to return to the negotiating table, but will only arouse nationalism in Iran, and in the end it will even detonate the conflict.
The British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) pointed out that Pompeo's statement is equivalent to providing Iran with three options: First, to fundamentally change the nature of the regime; Second, to change the regime itself; The third is the war, and sanctions are only the prelude to the war.
The EU remains stuck in the Iranian nuclear agreement and tries to mediate the crisis
Since the United States withdrew from the Iranian nuclear agreement on May 8, the EU has reiterated that it will maintain the Iranian nuclear agreement and said that this is the best way to prevent nuclear proliferation.
In response to Pompeo’s speech on the 21st, the EU’s negative side further stated that at present there is no better solution than the Iranian nuclear agreement; the United Kingdom implicitly stated that the goals listed by Pompeo could not be achieved within a reasonable time.
At the same time, from May 24th to 25th, French President Markron visited Russia and called on the Iranian nuclear states to maintain their commitment to the agreement. He hoped that Iran would not resume nuclear activities. Macron also stated that the escalation of tensions between Iran and Israel or the deterioration of the situation in the Middle East is the time for the parties interested in resolving the Syrian issue to start negotiations.
Iran’s attitude is strengthened and missile program accelerates
Earlier, Iran stated that as long as other countries are still committed to maintaining the current agreement framework, even if the United States withdraws, the Iranian nuclear agreement will remain valid.
However, with the escalation of U.S. sanctions, on May 24, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has set aside conditions in the Iranian nuclear agreement, otherwise he will restart the nuclear program.
There are three main conditions for Iran: European countries should protect Iran’s oil sales from US sanctions and continue to buy Iran’s crude oil; European banks continue to guarantee trade with Iran; the United Kingdom, France, and Germany guarantee that they will not be required by Washington. , seek negotiations on Iran’s ballistic missile program and regional activities.
The EU countries have not yet responded positively to this, but market participants believe that Iran's conditions are completely difficult to implement.
At the same time, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard issued a statement on the same day warning that if the United States had aggressive actions against Iran, it would face serious consequences.
Essence - ensuring the petroleum dollar system, or pushing up the price of gold
The reason why the United States insists on withdrawing from the Iranian nuclear agreement is mainly to maintain the balance of power between Saudi Arabia and Iran in the Middle East. It is the core interests of the United States to ensure that the oil dollar system is strengthening the dollar position at the same time.
Before the United States intervened in the Middle East situation, Russia and Iran have begun to gradually dominate the situation in the Middle East. Europe has great demand for Russia’s natural gas and Iran’s crude oil, so it passes similar gas pipelines such as the North Stream 2 to Europe. Words are the best choice.
In this system, Syria acts as a transit point because Russia needs to pass Syria to export its oil and gas from the Mediterranean to Europe. Therefore, Iran and Russia need to ensure the political connection with Syria.
The expansion of Iran and Russia’s influence in the Middle East will cause the United States to lose its dominant position in the region. At the same time, it will also affect the US crude oil exports to Europe and reduce US oil revenues. At the same time, in the crude oil trading system dominated by Iran and Russia, it will reduce the attractiveness of the US dollar settlement system, which is very unfavorable for the United States. In fact, earlier Iran and Russia once wanted to implement a clearing system for oil euros (1.1794, 0.0001, 0.01%), along with the emergence of crude oil futures for the yuan (6.3959, -0.0032, -0.05%), or further impact on the US dollar. .
Earlier, the interests of the EU and the United States were consistent in containing Russia’s influence in the Middle East. However, in withdrawing from the Iranian nuclear agreement, the EU stood on the opposite side of the United States. First of all, if the situation in the Middle East worsens, the tide of refugees may once again flock to Europe, adversely affecting European economic and social security.
At the same time, the withdrawal of the U.S. nuclear program will threaten the transportation of natural gas and crude oil from the Middle East and Russia to Europe, increasing the cost of oil importation in Europe and further pushing up inflation in Europe, which will cause Europe to withdraw from easing as soon as possible. For export-oriented Europe, the rapid rise of the euro will have a negative impact on the European economy, so Europe strongly opposed it.
Israel played a role as the vanguard of the United States in this situation. Israel’s military actions against Iran led to Russia and Iran to take corresponding measures. This situation gave the United States an excuse to intervene in the Middle East situation. It can be expected that the relations between Israel and Iran will further deteriorate, or they will stir up local conflicts, which will trigger market risk aversion and boost gold prices.
At the same time, the focus of the dispute between Israel and Iran lies with Syria, which may trigger a new round of crisis in Syria. Under such circumstances, the Middle East’s crude oil exports will again face a shortage. In the case of declining production in Venezuela, or further increase in oil prices.
Market participants said that the United States’ decision to withdraw from Iran’s nuclear agreement will impact 5% of global crude oil production capacity. In fact, this has reacted to the recent price difference between the two oils. The price difference between the two oils has expanded to over US$7 and will continue to expand in the future.