Gold, silver, crude oil, foreign exchange short-term trading strategies
The US dollar index weakened slightly on Monday (June 4th) and was suppressed by the poor results of the G7 meeting and technical resistance. However, optimistic economic data last week is still expected to support the gold price (1302.00, 0.70, 0.05%); spot gold Temporarily hovering around 1293, the fundamentals need to pay attention to changes in risk aversion, technically slightly bearish; Crude oil (66.71, 0.07, 0.11%) market, oil prices rebounded moderately after the previous trading day, but technical risks are higher It is also necessary to pay attention to the negative effects of drilling data to influence fermentation.
1, US dollar index:
Analysis: At the G7 meeting last weekend, the United States received protests from six other countries, which put the US dollar under pressure. The technical US dollar index also faced a relatively large risk of a correction, which was unfavorable to the US dollar; however, last week's US economic data was optimistic that the Fed raised interest rates further. Prospects are still expected to provide support to the US dollar on the midline.
Weekly level: unilateral gains; MACD Jinkang soldiers initially wear zero-axis, long-term moving averages long line, if you can break through the resistance near the 95.15 high of the week of October 27, 2017, the market outlook is expected to further rise to around 97.87, This position is the 61.8% retracement of the fall in the 103.83-88.24 position. The resistance at the high point of the week on June 23, 2017 is also near this position. There is also some resistance near the 96.03 retracement of the other 50%. The resistance of the short-term Bollinger band is around 94.80. If this position is broken, the bullish signal will increase.
However, KDJ has already run into the overbought zone, and last week the exchange rate was blocked near the double resistance on the Bollinger rail line and the 95.00 integer mark. The K-line had a crosshair and also needed to be alert to the short-term peaking risk. Initial support was at 5 weeks. Around the 93.73 average, the low of the week of May 11 and the 10-week moving average support around 92.29. If you lose this position, or this week, you will increase the downside risk.
(U.S. Dollar Index Weekly Chart) (U.S. Dollar Index Weekly Chart)
Daily level: After the unilateral rise, the high volatility, the high signal of "engulfment" appeared, the MACD ran away from the Sicha fork, and the KDJ Sicha operation, the exchange rate was under pressure on the 5-day moving average, and the short-term bias was downward. The daily average near the 93.62 support, if you fall in this position, increase the downside risk, further support at the May 22 low of 93.27 near the 38.2% retracement of the 88.24-95.02 rally support near 92.44.
However, due to the rebound in gold prices last Thursday followed by a small candlestick on Friday, still need to guard against the exchange rate may regain the rally, the initial resistance at the 5-day moving average 94.22 near the high point resistance at Friday's high near 94.44, If this position is broken, the bearish signal will be weakened. The stronger resistance is near the high of 95.02 in the previous week. It needs to break above this position and the exchange rate will have the opportunity to open up further upside.
(US dollar index daily chart) (US dollar index daily chart)
4 hours level: high volatility, the exchange rate correction rebounded after receiving support near the lower rail of the Bollinger Bands. Currently, the resistance of the Bollinger Band's middle rail, KDJ Sicha operation, short-term exploration of the Bollinger Band lower rail support near 93.62 May need to break below this position to open further downside space,
However, the MACD green bar shrank. If the exchange rate can maintain its support near 93.62 and break the resistance near the middle of the Bollinger Band at 94.29, it is expected to retest the resistance near the Bollinger Bands at 94.95. There is also some resistance near 94.75.
The exchange rate needs to break through the oscillation range of 93.62-95.02 in order to choose a further direction.
(US dollar index 4 hours chart) (US dollar index 4 hours chart)
Resistance: 94.22; 94.44; 94.75; 95.02; 95.15; 95.47; 96.02;
Support: 94.00; 93.62; 93.27; 93.00; 92.44; 91.98.
Conclusion: The short-term line is slightly bearish, but before the loss of 93.62, the midline is still too high.
2, spot gold:
Analysis: Last week, the non-agricultural data of the United States and the ISM manufacturing PMI data were non-agricultural optimistic. They are expected to provide support to the US dollar on the midline, and Trump changed his mind to say that the “Gold Club” will be held as scheduled, and it also weighed on risk aversion. The price of gold plunged after rising above the 200-day moving average many times, and the risk of the downside of the midline was relatively high. However, the market's concerns about trade friction still existed and may provide some support to the price of gold.
Weekly level: shocks; MACD Sicha operation, KDJ Sicha operation, short-term moving average Sicha, the market trended downwards, the current price of gold is just near the midline rising trend line since 1122, further support at the 100-week moving average around 1276.69, if Losing this position will increase the downside risks of the mid- to long-term. The 38.2% retracement of the 1122-1366 rally is near 1273.26, the 50% retracement is around 1244.5, and the 200-week moving average is around 1234.57.
However, given that the current price of gold is still supported by the dollar’s falling mid-line uptrend line, the top concern about the 10-week moving average resistance around 1314.99 will unexpectedly regain this position, the market outlook will still have the opportunity to regain the mid-line gains, and the other 5-week moving average resistance is near 1299.65; however, Since the rebound in the price of gold last week was again hampered by the 5-week moving average, this possibility has declined.
(Spot Gold Weekly Chart) (Spot Gold Weekly Chart)
Daily level: low volatility, gold price fell below the 1302-1307 region's important support has been completed to step back to confirm, 200-day moving average resistance to the formation of a strong suppression of gold prices, Bulin line middle track resistance is also near this position, KDJ re-established Sicha, also implying that the end of the rally, the risk of gold prices returning to the downtrend significantly increased, concerned about the support of the Bollinger Band 1282.62 near the track, if you fall in this position, you may open the midline downlink channel, December 26 low The support was near 1273.20; the high of December 7 and the high of December 19 were near 1265.20.
The initial resistance above the 5-day moving average is 1296.72, the 20-day moving average resistance is around 1300.45, and the 200-day moving average resistance is around 1307.59. Before regaining this position, the market is biased towards a downward movement.
(Spot gold daily chart) (spot gold daily chart)
Resistance: 1296.72; 1300.45; 1307.59; 1310.40; 1314.99;
Support: 1282.60; 1276.69; 1273.20; 1265.20; 1260.00.
Short-term operation suggestions: Choose short positions.
3, spot silver:
Weekly: shocks, KDJ Sicha, the market outlook is slightly bearish, concerned about the Bollinger Band near the 16.00 near the support, need to fall below this position, will open the midline downside space.
The initial resistance at the top is near the 16.83 high of the week of May 11. The resistance on the nearby rails at 17.27 on the Bollinger Bands needs to be broken above this level to open the upside.
(Spot Silver Weekly Chart) (Spot Silver Weekly Chart)
Daily level: Concussion, focus on Bollinger Bands 16.21-16.68 regional breakthrough, due to KDJ Sicha, short-term slightly bearish, but also need to fall below the Bollinger Band 16.21 near the support in order to open the downside space.
There is still some resistance near the top of the 100-day moving average at 16.61. The resistance at the high point of May 31 is also near this position. Before the break above this position, the short-term is slightly bearish.
(Spot Silver Daily Chart) (Spot Silver Daily Chart)
Support: 16.21; 16.03; 16.81; 16.61.
Conclusion: Concussion, slightly biased downwards.